All posts by Gary C. Woodward

red white blue bar

The Vote Was Accurate

It must be disheartening for autocrats to witness an open society engaging in the messy but carefully audited work of self-governance.

Under dire circumstances the United States just pulled off a presidential-year election surprisingly well.  All signs point to large turnout and an accurate count. But from the nature of his complaints, I suspect the President has never been a poll worker who put in a 14-hour day to assist in a local precinct. Living hundreds of feet in the air tends to put a person out of touch with life on the ground. His claims of vote fraud appear to be baseless. But they are also a libel on the thousands of folks who have offered their time to help run the vote in individual precincts.

In the aftermath of the election, and against numerous discredited charges, the American system of voting held. Virtually all state Secretaries of State have vouched for the process, regardless of their party affiliation or their state’s results. A few thousand votes were found in Georgia.  But, so far, that’s about it.

Because the U.S. has a decentralized system for running elections, it is nearly impossible for an individual or organization to engineer significant vote-stealing. Only a fool would think there were individuals or groups conspiring to change an outcome.  Their continued rhetoric insisting on the election’s illegitimacy is its own form of Shakespearian treachery.

We perhaps have few things the rest of the world might want to copy right now, but our convoluted process of voting—in person or by mail—seems eminently immune from the possibility of throwing elections. It’s especially disheartening that the President would pick on some of the most loyal Americans in the process: workers at the United States Postal Service, state employees risking infection to staff election tally desks, and the party committee men and women who traditionally organize workers to help in individual precincts. Suggesting that their efforts were tainted is an empty accusation.

 

It’s easier to nurture conspiracies from ignorance.

The President has planted a seed of doubt among some Americans who probably know little about how our localized system works. It’s easier to imagine conspiracies if a person lacks an understanding of the double and sometimes triple-entry book-keeping that happens during vote counts.  In addition, anyone who has been a poll worker understands that the task of helping a neighbor exercise their franchise comes first. Partisanship usually takes a back seat. In the United States we have carried on the process for a long time and, thankfully, enlarged the franchise to include almost every adult.

My own experiences sitting at a table with neighbors of both parties made it unthinkable that a vote would be stolen. If a citizen was not registered, they were directed to the county courthouse to get a provisional ballot. It would have been unpardonable to send them away with no chance to correct the problem. Before the pendemic we lasted out the long day to finally finish by reading the voting machines in the evening. Workers and observers would check and record the final numbers that would be forwarded to the county. If the published tally online or in a newspaper didn’t match, we could say so.

To be sure, there is a history of vote theft in the last century. Many older African Americans and even Jimmy Carter have cautionary stories to tell. But we’ve done far better in the last 50 years. Concerns over crude efforts at voter suppression are still justified, but this year stories of potential intimidation seemed to boomerang and motivate more voters to turn out.

As slow as the count was, it was still impressive to see the confidence of a broad range of local officials confident that all legitimate ballots had been or will be counted. No wonder Vladimir Putin has been so quiet and the President so accusatory. It must be disheartening for autocrats to witness millions of citizens engaging in the messy but carefully audited work of self-governance.

red white blue bar

Why We Cling to Magical Thinking

With group fantasies, the world always makes sense.  Without them we would have to live closer to the uncertainties of incomplete insight.

These times remind us that millions of Americans have easily succumbed to magical thinking, to the embarrassment of much of the nation.  Magical thinking happens when a view is reinforced more by others than hard fact. This happens in every conceivable realm of American life: medicine and vaccines, allegations of “voter fraud,” rumors about celebrities, and—of course—our national politics.

There is a clear and convincing explanation for this collective response to not notice the obvious. We can continue to call the determination to believe a falsehood “magical thinking.” But a better term is “fantasy chaining.”  Let me explain.

Years ago, social scientist Robert Bales noted that groups of people put together in a room to solve a problem often reach a moment when there is a convergence of views around a preferred narrative. In many cases folks in the group didn’t have the facts or knowledge to make a judgement, but they had the support of other like-minded people around them. Think of a jury reaching a judgment on a case based on a shared prejudice. From this and other observations, Bales developed the idea of Interaction Process Analysis to track this convergence of opinions, building in part on the work of Sigmund Freud work in The Interpretation of Dreams.  It was good, but not quite clear enough. And any theory resting on Freudian assumption needs a lot more grounding.

Years later communication theorist Ernest Boorman at the University of Minnesota refined Bales’ ideas into a theory Fantasy Theme Analysis. His work created a convincing model that was finally up to speed and amazingly predictive.

Basically, Boorman acknowledged that—in the absence of good information—we tend to rely on members of our reference group and our natural compulsion to spin narratives that allow us to move us from tentative claims like “I suspect” to the certainties of “I know.”  That’s what a fantasy theme makes possible. He also noted the obvious: that it is easy for group fantasies to “chain out” to others with similar views.

Fantasy theme analysis helps us understand the contagion that happens when incomplete information combines with our hard-wired impulses to see the world in sets of self-contained stories. Each comes with with actors, motivations, preferred narratives, and final outcomes. We hate incomplete narratives, as when there is an airplane accident caused by bad weather.  So we are happy to construct our own secondary narratives, regardless of what solid evidence might oblige us to believe. We want to have human agents in the picture and at least partly responsible.

Here’s another example I have used in a text and my classes. I was sitting in my office one day in the 80s with a copy of the New York Times opened up on my desk. A colleague dropped by and, at the same time, we both noticed the paper’s front-page picture of the new Soviet version of a space shuttle. The Buran space craft looked exactly like the American version. Same wing shape. Same color. Same size. And without missing a beat we both blurted out the view that “they must have stolen the American design.” End of story. We “knew” it and we were ready to fill in the blanks. The similarity of the shape was enough to accept the fantasy of a theft of our plans.  All the while, we pretty much ignored the physics of space flight, which mandates similar design parameters for any earth-to-space vehicle.

With group fantasies, the world always makes sense.  Without them, we would have to live with the continuous uncertainties mandated by incomplete information. In my field there is a Latin phrase to describe humans as homo narrans: the species that tells stories. That is our priority. Truth is far back in the pack. Tacts are optional and often downright inconvenient for humans. It feels better and it is much easier to bolster each other’s fantasies.

In time, and the sooner the better, more Americans will rejoin the reality-based world.

Top Photo Credit: <a href=”https://www.freepik.com/photos/background”>Background photo created by valeria_aksakova – www.freepik.com</a>